Florian Hartig Theoretical Ecology & Ecological Data Science

← Publications

Identifying local drivers of a vector-pathogen-disease system using Bayesian modeling

Bernd Panassiti, Florian Hartig, Johannes Fahrentrapp, Michael Breuer, Robert Biedermann

Basic and Applied Ecology, 18, 75–85 (2017)
Cite this
@article{panassiti2017identifying,
  author = {Bernd Panassiti and Florian Hartig and Johannes Fahrentrapp and Michael Breuer and Robert Biedermann},
  title = {Identifying local drivers of a vector-pathogen-disease system using Bayesian modeling},
  journal = {Basic and Applied Ecology},
  volume = {18},
  pages = {75–85},
  year = {2017},
  doi = {10.1016/j.baae.2016.11.005},
}

DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2016.11.005
Cited by 16 (Google Scholar) · 13 (OpenAlex), as of 07 September 2026

View article (DOI)

Abstract

“Bois noir” is a phytoplasma-mediated grapevine yellows disease that causes great economic damage in European vineyards. Previous studies have examined habitat relationships on a regional scale, which help to better understand the large-scale epidemiology. Local drivers, such as micro-habitat preferences of the vector (Hyalesthes obsoletus, a cixiid planthopper), or local interactions with reservoir host plants, however, are still poorly understood, although this knowledge is crucial for developing site-specific management strategies. Here, we examined the local environment-species relationships of a phytoplasma-mediated grapevine disease on a scale of 15 m in a 2.9 ha vineyard, combining data on elevation and habitat types, cover of host plants Urtica dioica and Convolvulus arvensis over three seasons, vector monitoring over four seasons, genetic tests for phytoplasma presence in the vector, and inspection of 6056 grapevine plants for visual symptoms, analysed in a joint causal model estimated with Bayesian inference. Our results indicate that surrounding natural and semi-natural vegetation and high density of the major host plant U. dioica are associated with an increase in vector population densities, and that higher vector population densities at low availability of U. dioica were associated with higher phytoplasma infection rates in the vector. The prevalence of disease symptoms in grapevine plants was nonetheless more affected by grapevine cultivar and higher elevation than by the estimated availability of infected vectors. The results support current bois noir management recommendations that removal of the host plant U. dioica should be carried out in either spring or autumn, and that grapevine cultivars are unequally susceptible – while also showing that U. dioica control before the flight period may result in low U. dioica densities and high H. obsoletus population densities, causing an increase in vector infection rates and disease pressure.

What the paper shows and why it matters (AI-generated)

At the scale of a single 2.9-hectare vineyard, this Bayesian analysis traces bois noir grapevine disease back to its local drivers: vector density rises with surrounding semi-natural vegetation and the host plant Urtica dioica, while infection rates climb specifically when that host plant becomes scarce during the vector's flight period. That last finding complicates the standard advice to simply remove the host plant — timing matters, and a later study directly tested whether nettle removal along ditches actually controls bois noir, taking this paper's nuance seriously rather than the simpler recommendation alone.